In Medias Res: Brilliant, Scary, Visionary, and Strange
May 2nd, 2008 by Rob
(edited to correct some Don Fagin lyrics)
In Medias Res: Brilliant, Scary, Visionary, and Strange
Russell has some thoughts about a speech by Clay Shirkey in which Shirkey discusses his observations about social surpluses. He makes a certain case there by recounting a conversation with a person who couldn’t understand where the people who edit wikipedia articles find the time to do so. And in a speech which likens television sitcoms of the mid to late 20th century to gin pushcarts of the late 19th to early 20th century, he points out that those people have found that kind of time by not watching as much television as they used to.
I confess to being weary of tech visionaries. I don’t agree with Clay Shirkey about the transcendence of what he’s seen. Either that or I simply can’t get excited about tech progress any longer. Or I see his anecdotes as data points in much larger trends which have “changed the world” in superficial ways, but not in fundamental ones.
Consider, for example, the rhetoric that used to swirl around the invention of various devices we now take for granted. Perhaps the telephone is a good example. At first, people were shocked and appalled at a device, essentially the very first automation network, which could utter sounds made before then only by a human throat. Leave aside the notion that a human was still required to make the sound, he was still making a machine imitate it an appreciable distance away.
So, looking “from 30,000 feet” at the growth of the phone network, first, there was resistance, sometimes lots of resistance, then embrace by the wealthiest or most technologically inclined of the population, followed by a general acceptance of the tool by commercial interests, followed by general acceptance by all the population, followed by a worldwide build-out of the network.
But during those first years, the rhetoric was of a revolution in the way humans interacted. Some even declared that it would end wars, because people could then talk to one another more easily and misunderstandings could be resolved with the new gizmo far easier than with the old.
Since then the human race has fought the bloodiest wars in the history of civilization, and endured the most brutal tyrannies, alongside some of the highest and most noble expressions of lovingkindness and humanitarianism. Good and bad, but no fundamental change in human behavior, because there were now telephones.
The same sorts of things can and have been said about any subsequent innovation. Television was supposed to be a premier educational tool, bringing teachers to far-flung places. Hopefully the primary use of television today illuminates the absurdity of that assumption.
FM Radio was supposed to supplant AM Radio as a better technology than before. But RCA undertook to destroy its inventor personally, rather than buy shares in its technology.
The attitude towards the computer was that it would eventually become “a just machine that makes big decisions / Programmed by fellows with compassion and vision” with the promise that “we’ll be clean when their work is done / We’ll be eternally free, yes, and eternally young, mmmm…”
What a beautiful world that will be, indeed. Donald Fagin’s “IGY” (for the International Geophysical Year declared by world scientists) captured the rhetoric of the revolutionary, common when we Americans were reaping the low-hanging fruit of the second large network to be built after the telephone, namely, the electric power grid. It was the attitude that got my American society to agree to send a man to the Moon and return him home again.
During the Roosevelt era in the mid-Twentieth Century, during the U.S. ascendence into a world power, the rhetoric was surely the same for that power network as for the telephone; bringing it to the people of the U.S., and then to the world, would solve many of their problems and help them all to live higher. The TVA was born of revolutionary rhetoric, as was the regulated telephone monopoly. Technology for the common man with the common touch.
Did it change society much? During all that time the U.S. fought about Civil Rights, and not peacefully. Hate abounded as it always had.
The third network, the computer itself, was not an internetwork of voice, or of power, but it stemmed from the benefits of both of those. When ENIAC was brought online, when differential amplifiers and image dissectors were refined from ideas about physics, we learned that we could capture algorithms in networks of current limiting vacuum tubes, display them on screens, and our visionaries declared the revolution of the computer. “Star Trek” was first made during this time, actually right before it ended, but of course the first uses of the computer were in war, hot and cold. The visionaries of the time glossed over that part when promoting the use of computing automation to the masses.
(Today, much of Star Trek’s social projections seem quite silly to me, even as the technological predictions decorate my home and come true beyond Roddenberry’s wildest dreams.)
And they do it today, during the ascendance of the fourth network of human cooperation, instanced today as “the Internet.” With computers cheap, the potential for media interactivity is very high. Certainly, as Clay Shirken pointed out, children today expect their screens to come with interactivity. I’ve felt the same impatience with television entertainment myself, but I can also remember that interactive TV was a promise of early cable franchise conglomerates. It was mocked on the Nickelodeon network in the mid-80’s in an episode of “You Can’t Do That On Television.”
It is ironic that Fagin released “IGY” in 1982, when the shine had come off the electric grid, after one energy crisis and during the tail end of a second, and when pollution, global climate change (then called global cooling, actually!), and peak oil were starting to be on everyone’s mind. By then the Internet was a connection network for large computers owned by the military and the universities affiliated in one way or another with DARPA.
Ten years from that point I would be of age, and be participating in a small way in the build out of that fourth internetwork, following the voice, power, and transistor networks which had already been designed and built. At that time I was fully enraptured by the revolution the Internet and computers could provide.
Since then, I’ve seen the same things happen “over the Web” that happened with the first telephone network, and the upheavals of the power grid and the rollouts of various, faster, and smaller computers. Resistance to the new technology is most often followed by attempts by established powers to own the new technology and shape it to their benefit. Witness the fights between Western Union and Alexander Graham Bell. Farnsworth and RCA. Steve Jobs and Microsoft. Any number of music publishers and the anarchists who use the Internet to duplicate their intellectual property against all laws. Efforts by movie companies to control through the DMCA. The “Net Neutrality” debates.
That ought to be enough of a body of examples to showcase what I think is true: Visionaries can’t see the future. Bell’s prognostications about the phone network, Kurzweil’s and Gates’ about computers, Roosevelt’s about the power grid, all were partly true and partly appallingly false. The telephone network was built, the power grid, television broadcast networks, but we are not “eternally free” nor “eternally young”.
Instead, basic human nature continues to rule. Now, Shirken talks about a tiny fraction of all the people participating in media interactivity, blogs and online votes and Web 2.0 stuff. As a revolution, because people were choosing to “wake up” from the 20th century’s equivalent to the gin cart, namely, broadcast television entertainment.
He isn’t alone in this kind of thinking, obviously, both since it is plain to see the ease with which young people obtain cheap computers and use them to communicate with one another, and to see how baffling these new approaches to communication are to those of us who are used to older technologies.
Hopefully, though, I’ve been able to demostrate why I don’t see those things as “revolutionary” or even very important for changing society or the world. Instead of sudden, the changes he highlights appear to me to flow apace, as society behaves the same about every new innovation as it did about all the old ones. As a very early adopter of what people now call text messaging and of the power of the so-called “social networks” (I used Unix “talk” and still use Usenet, for two examples), coupled with my study of modern history (for which I am not lettered, merely educated), I claim armchair expertise in the field as a social observer.
Hence, the observation he offered is pedestrian, and not terribly inspiring to me. I claim this even as I buy new iPhones and flat screens and computers for my own use, because they are dead useful tools. But they will not help us transcend ourselves.
Finally, I offer my own anecdote, as harmony (or dissonance) to some of Clay’s enthusiasm. I am aware of Kurzweil’s idea of “the Singularity”, which is a moment he predicts for the future when humanity will merge with intelligent computers, or other types of artificial intelligences. At that point, we leave our physical bodies behind and use the “superior” AI bodies, or just become “pure energy”, as Roddenberry once put it.
The trope is common, actually. Clarke wrote about it in Childhood’s End, Vinge in Marooned in Realtime, Bear in Blood Music. Most science fiction writers touch on the subject. Most apply Platonic attitudes toward purity and intelligence.
I described some of these ideas to a friend, who has two children and manages rental homes for a living. She was appalled and did not prefer it.
It was the same visceral rejection offered by those older opponents of that first inter-human network, the telephone, which I thought was marvelously interesting, whether or not Kurzweil was right. History shows that he probably isn’t.


